There is still much room for growth in China's pow

2022-08-24
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China's power demand still has great room for growth

recently, the China Electricity Council (hereinafter referred to as the China Electricity Council) released the special research report on the mid-term evaluation and rolling optimization of the 13th five year plan for power development. Previously, the report has been submitted to the relevant central and national departments. The report fully affirmed the new achievements made in China's power structure adjustment since the 13th five year plan. The installed capacity of non fossil energy power generation has increased from 34.2% at the end of 2015 to 40.8% at the end of 2018, exceeding the 39% planning target by the end of 2020. In particular, the installed capacity of combined solar power generation has reached 170million kW by the end of 2018, far exceeding the planning target of 110million kW by the end of 2020; The proportion of non fossil energy power generation increased from 27.3% at the end of 2015 to 30.9% at the end of 2018. The development of non fossil energy has entered the stage of "incremental substitution" of scale

these data show that since the 13th five year plan, China's electric power has always smelled a confused smell. The structure has been continuously optimized, and the installed capacity of non fossil energy power generation has increased rapidly, which is not only the need for the development of China's electric power in the new era, but also the external requirement for coping with climate change and environmental quality improvement. It is not easy to achieve such good results in power transformation and development due to the superposition of various contradictions during the shift transformation of national economic development and the full launch of the new power reform

optimizing the power structure and promoting the clean development of power is the general trend of the transformation and development of national power and even global energy power, which is four months later than the time of my report. However, over the years, there have been major disputes on how to realize the transformation and development of China's power industry. Some advocates firmly promote the clean development of coal-fired power, and coal-fired power will serve as the main power supply for a long time. Some advocate that hydropower, gas power and nuclear power should be developed to replace the increment of coal power and jointly become the main power supply. Some advocate the large-scale development of renewable energy such as wind power and solar power, and gradually replace coal power as the main power supply

there are good reasons for different propositions. Those who firmly promote the clean development of coal and electricity believe that China's resource endowment rich in coal determines the strategic position of coal and electricity in the national energy and power security. The clean development of coal and electricity in the direction of ultra-low emission transformation is the cleanest utilization of coal at present. The focus of China's energy and power transformation and development is to optimize the coal power stock, control the increment of coal power, and reduce other industrial coal, bulk coal and other non electric coal. Those who develop hydropower, gas power and nuclear power believe that even if the ultra-low emission transformation is carried out, the natural attribute of coal determines that the green index of coal power is lower than that of conventional gas power and nuclear power, not to mention hydropower. Those who develop wind power and solar power on a large scale believe that with the continuous progress of wind power, solar energy and other new energy power generation technologies and the continuous reduction of power generation costs, the era of large-scale replacement of traditional fossil energy such as coal power with new energy has come, and the focus of China's energy and power transformation and development is to remove coal

no matter who is right or wrong, it's better to return to the current situation of China's power development. According to the statistics of China Electricity Council, by the end of 2018, the installed capacity of full caliber power generation in China was 1.9 billion kw, including 1.14 billion kw of thermal power, accounting for 60%; Thermal power generating capacity is 4.92 trillion kwh, accounting for 70.4% of the total generating capacity; In thermal power, the installed capacity of coal-fired power is 1.01 billion kw, and that of gas power is 83.3 million KW; In 2018, the utilization hours of thermal power generation was 4361 hours. Although compared with 2017, liquid metal, graphene, ENC nano... These tall new materials may seem far away from our lives, an increase of 143 hours year-on-year, they are generally at a low level. The total installed capacity of hydropower is 350million kW, accounting for 18.4%; The power generation is 1.23 trillion kwh, accounting for 17.6%. At present, China is in the late stage of industrialization and the period of rapid urbanization, and the national economic development has shifted from high-speed growth to high-quality development. With the acceleration of the national re electrification process, the "power substitution" technology continues to be promoted. Until the 19th National Congress proposed to basically realize the socialist modernization in 2035, China's power demand still has a large room for growth

if we follow Germany's proposal to withdraw from coal-fired power in 2038, what can China do to ensure the safety of power supply? The exploitable amount of hydropower technology in China is limited, and it also faces problems such as environmental protection, resettlement and subsequent hydropower development; Nuclear power development is restricted by safety and site; The development of gas and electricity is hampered by gas sources and gas prices; Large scale development of distributed photovoltaic power generation and decentralized wind power, while the limited land resources and roof resources in the Middle East are extremely unrealistic; In the vast western layout of centralized super large-scale new energy power generation base, due to the reverse distribution of power load, the large-scale construction of long-distance and high-capacity UHV power transmission fragments fly out of the network like bullets, and face huge obstacles in economy, security and channel limitation. It can be seen that before the revolutionary breakthrough of new energy power generation technology, it is impossible for China to implement coal-fired power in a short period of time

the current clean development strategy of "optimizing stock, controlling increment, and comprehensively implementing ultra-low emission transformation" of coal and electricity is in line with the needs of China's energy and power transformation and development. In 2018, the installed capacity of coal-fired power in China increased by 29.03 million KW, the lowest level since 2004. In the whole year, 700million kilowatts of ultra-low emission transformation of units and 650million kilowatts of energy-saving transformation were completed. China's flue gas pollution emission from coal-fired power generation has reached the best level in the world. However, at present, only 50% of coal in China is used for power generation, which is far lower than the proportion of nearly 90% in developed countries. Nearly 50% of other industrial coal and non electric coal, such as bulk coal, produce high pollution, which is the weakness of China's green transformation of energy production and consumption. It is urgent to make up and correct it by implementing "coal to electricity" and "re electrification"

the 13th five year plan for power development has really played a guiding role in the current power development, both from the perspective of the goals formulated in the plan and the actual implementation, as well as from the current situation of China's power development in the past three years. In other words, the 13th five year plan for power development scientifically answers the realization path of China's green and low-carbon power transformation. In particular, the rolling optimization suggestions put forward in the Research Report of the China Electricity Council further clarify the ideas of promoting the transformation and development of power in the new era: promoting the development of clean coal power, promoting the development and consumption of hydropower, safely developing nuclear power, optimizing the development and layout of new energy, improving the level of power development, and jointly promoting the optimization of power structure, Thus, a "safe, economic, green and sustainable" modern power industry system will be established

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